When Alan Cole noticed Elon Musk supporters aggressively bidding up a contract on the prediction market Kalshi—one tied to the idea that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could meaningfully cut federal spending within a year—he decided the smartest move was to take the other side, according to a report on Cole’s win published by The Wall Street Journal.
Cole, an international tax accountant, told the WSJ that if there was one thing he felt confident about, it was this: you can’t slash U.S. federal spending quickly. Even if DOGE managed to cancel certain federal contracts and lay off government workers (which it did), the bulk of major obligations would remain, and the rapidly rising federal debt would continue to weigh on the numbers.
So he went all-in, wagering his entire life savings—more than $342,000—on the counter-position that the U.S. federal budget would not suddenly shrink. Over time, he built up a stake of roughly 3% of a Kalshi market that had expanded to about $12 million in total activity, he told the WSJ, while also placing a few hedging trades along the way.
When the government released the 2025 year-end spending report on February 20, showing spending increases compared with 2024, Cole walked away with $470,300 in total proceeds—good for a tidy profit of about $128,000.
